Work Package 3 focuses on developing and applying downscaling techniques to localized climate forecast simulations at relevant spatio-temporal scales. By further advancing downscaling techniques, IMPETUS aims to provide localized climate information critical for climate adaptation and resilience strategies at the local level.
Highlights include:
- Tools and Techniques: The main tools in WP3 are standard empirical statistical downscaling techniques (ESD) and new hybrid downscaling approaches (model emulators).
- CPRCM Emulators: IMPETUS proposes a new approach to tackle the challenge of dynamic models which require large ensembles to capture the range of natural variability and costly fine-scale climate models. CPRCM simulations are conducted over large domains in Europe to train and evaluate hybrid downscaling techniques. These techniques will then be applied to downscale global climate prediction ensembles. CPRCM simulations focus on the present as well as projection scales.
- CPRCM Simulations: 20-year long simulations at kilometer-scale using a diversity of Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Models (CPRCM) are run over 3 large domains (North Europe, South Europe, Caribbean islands) encompassing the various targeted cities of the project for both the present period and various Global Warming Levels.
- The three phases of implementation are: 1. development and evaluation of CPRCM simulations and hybrid downscaling techniques, 2. application of these techniques to downscale global climate prediction ensembles, and 3. delivery of localized climate information for use in other project components and openly to a large audience after the end of the project.
- Potential Applications: The powerfull combination of kilometer-scale CPRCM simulations, locally-adapted Empirical Statistical Downscaling methods and newly-developed Emulator hybrid techniques have the potentiality to produce localised and reliable climate information in Europe and the demonstrator cities specifically, contributing to hazard assessment and risk analysis.