Open Workshop on Understanding and Predicting Annual to Multi-Decadal Climate Variations
18 Nov 2025 - 20 Nov 2025
Download the event flyer here!
From 18 to 20 November 2025, the I4C, EXPECT, and ASPECT projects co-hosted an open international workshop in Bologna (with hybrid participation) focused on understanding and predicting climate variability across annual to multi-decadal timescales.
This event brought together researchers working on climate prediction, variability, and extremes, especially those who developed tools and methods to better understand the drivers of climate shifts over 1–30 years. Topics included forecast skill, the role of natural variability and external forcings, and the use of AI, machine learning, and other advanced techniques for prediction and attribution.
Sessions
Sessions covered past climate variability, advances in modelling and post-processing, and new approaches for explaining and improving forecast reliability:
- Understanding and attributing historical climate variations and extremes
- Forecast evaluation (extremes, anomalies, trends, windows of opportunity)
- New methods in prediction (modelling, initialization, AI/ML, post-processing)
- Mechanisms underlying predictability and their representation in forecast systems
I4C poster and oral presentation schedule
18 November
- 11:10 – 11:30, Oral presentation “Atlantic multi-decadal variability contributing to Arctic warming” by Noel Keenlyside
- 14:10 – 18:30, Poster “The sensitivity of EC-Earth3 decadal predictions to the choice of volcanic forcing dataset: Insights for the next major eruption” by Roberto Bilbao
- 14:10 – 18:30, Poster “Skillful multi-annual predictions of Eurasian winter climate by constraining the NAO-temperature teleconnection in CMIP6 simulations” by Rashed Mahmood
19 November
- 11:40 – 12:00, Oral presentation “Towards large ensembles of local ML-based climate predictions: potentials, pitfalls and prognoses” by Stefan Sobolowski
- 16:00 – 16:20, Oral presentation “A probabilistic and physically consistent blending method for decadal predictions and projections” by Pablo Ortega
- 16:40 – 17:00, Oral presentation “Development of a new process-based constraint technique to provide decadal climate prediction over Europe” by Rémy Bonnet